https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Index en-au 5 https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:48197  1,050 fire-affected taxa, we selected 173 whose distributions substantially overlapped the fire extent. We estimated the proportion of each taxon’s distribution affected by fires, using fire severity and aquatic impact mapping, and new distribution mapping. Using expert elicitation informed by evidence of responses to previous wildfires, we estimated local population responses to fires of varying severity. We combined the spatial and elicitation data to estimate overall population loss and recovery trajectories, and thus indicate potential eligibility for listing as threatened, or uplisting, under Australian legislation. Results: We estimate that the 2019–2020 Australian megafires caused, or contributed to, population declines that make 70–82 taxa eligible for listing as threatened; and another 21–27 taxa eligible for uplisting. If so-listed, this represents a 22–26% increase in Australian statutory lists of threatened terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates and spiny crayfish, and uplisting for 8–10% of threatened taxa. Such changes would cause an abrupt worsening of underlying trajectories in vertebrates, as measured by Red List Indices. We predict that 54–88% of 173 assessed taxa will not recover to pre-fire population size within 10 years/three generations. Main conclusions: We suggest the 2019–2020 Australian megafires have worsened the conservation prospects for many species. Of the 91 taxa recommended for listing/uplisting consideration, 84 are now under formal review through national processes. Improving predictions about taxon vulnerability with empirical data on population responses, reducing the likelihood of future catastrophic events and mitigating their impacts on biodiversity, are critical.]]> Sat 11 Mar 2023 12:30:03 AEDT ]]> https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:51249 Mon 28 Aug 2023 12:29:36 AEST ]]> https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:53278 10 million ha of temperate and subtropical forests. Methods: We integrated an existing soil erosion model with fire severity mapping and rainfall data to estimate the spatial extent of post-fire sedimentation threat in waterways and in basins and the potential exposure of aquatic species to this threat. We validated the model against field observations of sedimentation events after the 2019–20 fires. Results: While fires overlapped with ~27,643 km of waterways, post-fire sedimentation events potentially occurred across ~40,449 km. In total, 55% (n = 85) of 154 basins in the study region may have experienced substantial post-fire sedimentation. Ten species—including six Critically Endangered—were threatened by post-fire sedimentation events across 100% of their range. The model increased the estimates for potential impact, compared to considering fire extent alone, for >80% of aquatic species. Some species had distributions that did not overlap with the fire extent, but that were entirely exposed to post-fire sedimentation threat. Conclusions: Compared with estimating the overlap of fire extent with species' ranges, our model improves estimates of fire-related threats to aquatic fauna by capturing the complexities of fire impacts on hydrological systems. The model provides a method for quickly estimating post-fire sedimentation threat after future fires in any fire-prone region, thus potentially improving conservation assessments and informing emergency management interventions.]]> Mon 20 Nov 2023 13:02:59 AEDT ]]>